Thursday, November 21, 2013

Week 12 Forecasts

Week 12 is here, and since I'll be unable to update my rankings and projections this weekend (vacation in Cleveland!) I've got some preliminary Thursday projections for everyone.

This week Victor Cruz is great value across all sites, so if you can fit him into your lineup that would be highly recommended. Chris Ogbonnaya is also priced very well across the board, but it's hard to recommend him as more than an efficient and cheap fill-in who could allow you to upgrade at another position like QB. Speaking of which, Brees and Peyton are on a level of their own this week, so it would definitely be advisable to try and pick one of them up, especially Brees (who's priced lower). However, as Brees is playing Thursday, it's still slightly risky.
Results from last week:
  • Antonio Brown was priced extremely well in all leagues, and showed last week why it's a good idea to trust the high-volume WRs when the price is right.
  • Ray Rice finally payed off for those willing to trust him. Unfortunately his performance bumped up his price in all leagues, and he's no longer a good value.

Saturday, November 9, 2013

Week 10 Projections

Another week brings with it new projections! While I didn't have time to put together projections before Thursday nights game between the Redskins and Vikings, if that game is a sign of things to come, this week will be great for fantasy players. Garcon, Reed and Peterson all had great games, and unsurprisingly were all ranked quite highly going into the game.

Anyway, with those players out of the picture, the landscape changes slightly. While Garcon's price has been rising across most sites recently, he generally still holds very decent value. That might change after his second 20+ point performance, however.

A couple players to keep an eye out for this week are Cecil Shorts, Keenan Allen, and Mike James. These three guys are priced relatively well across almost all sites. Allen is a particularly good buy if priced well, as he's proved over his past 4-5 games that he's not only a great red-zone threat but has been able to rack up the targets and yardage extremely consistently. It's very surprising he's still being priced as a WR2-3 when he's clearly in the WR1-2 range.
Cecil Shorts is a slightly different story. After teammate Justin Blackmon was suspended last week for repeated violation of the NFLs substance abuse policy (marijuana) Shorts will step right back into the #1 role at Jacksonville. Fortunately for him, he now has Chad Henne hucking the ball rather than the indomitable Blaine Gabbert. While both Jacksonville and Henne are still terrible, Henne is a massive step up from Gabbert. Since JAX will still be playing from behind every game, Shorts should see an uptick in targets and some (hopefully) impressive garbage time points. Another much deeper sleeper to keep an eye on in Jacksonville is Mike Brown, the team's third receiver who will be playing in the spot of Blackmon.

Mike James is final value pick who is under-priced at almost every site. With news this week that Doug Martin has been placed on the season-ending IR in Tampa, James is now the teams one and only back, and will be the focal point of their run game for the rest of the season. With another week to train as the primary back, James should be good for some solid points in favorable matchups. This week vs. the Dolphins is definitely one of those favorable matchups. Pick him up.
The last guy I want to talk about is Jimmy Graham. With Gronk on bye and Gonzalez in a difficult matchup vs the Seahawks Graham is by far the best TE pickup this week. However, he's still priced very high in most leagues, so picking him up will necessitate some bargains and value-picks in other positions. However, despite his steep price tag, he's still worth a pickup in most sites due to his ridiculous ability. Graham is one of those guys you can count on for 1-2 touchdowns every game. It's not fair. If you can afford him, pick him up.

Anyway, without further ado, the full week 10 value rankings and lineup optimizations:

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Week 9 Rankings

Week 9 player rankings have finally taken a more consistent turn as the ideal "buy low" candidates like Keenan Allen, Zac Stacy and Fred Jackson have finally decisively emerged as solid starters with a high volume of targets and touches. Going forward it will be interesting to see how the changing RB landscape at teams like Philly (Riley Cooper), St. Louis (Zac Stacy),  Arizona (Andre Ellington) and New York (Andre Brown) evolves for the rest of the season.

Before I crunch the numbers for week 9 (consensus rankings haven't been adequately updated at this point in time) we should make sure to keep an eye out on the following players:

QB:
  • Nick Foles (possibly solidified is start ahead of Vick even when he returns to health)
  • Jay Cutler (coming back from injury earlier than expected, Alshon Jeffery showing he's the real deal)
  • Tom Brady (was priced extremely low due to his horrible first half of the season)
  • Case Keenum (great showing as a solid QB option for Texas)
RB:
  • Zac Stacy (a few great games in a row, now the obvious starter and focal point of STL offense)
  • Andre Ellington (this is riskier, depends on how he is utilized by the AZ coaches)
  • Andre Brown (coming back from injury, might now get full workload immediately but the only back in NY and very talented)
  • Lamar Miller (finally getting consistent 15-18 carries a game, a solid option if priced reasonably)
WR:
  • Riley Cooper (Foles loves this guy so much that he'll be a solid pick every week)
  • Alshon Jeffery (looked the part of a legit WR1, if Jay Cutler comes back could do even better)
  • Keenan Allen (if he's still priced dirt cheap he'll be a great option)
  • Antonio Brown (finally showed what kind of numbers he's capable of if he finds the end zone)
Anyway, this is all purely speculative, it might not make sense to pick up most of these guys if they're not priced advantageously at the various websites.

Week 9 Optimized Lineups and Player Value Rankings: