Saturday, November 9, 2013

Week 10 Projections

Another week brings with it new projections! While I didn't have time to put together projections before Thursday nights game between the Redskins and Vikings, if that game is a sign of things to come, this week will be great for fantasy players. Garcon, Reed and Peterson all had great games, and unsurprisingly were all ranked quite highly going into the game.

Anyway, with those players out of the picture, the landscape changes slightly. While Garcon's price has been rising across most sites recently, he generally still holds very decent value. That might change after his second 20+ point performance, however.

A couple players to keep an eye out for this week are Cecil Shorts, Keenan Allen, and Mike James. These three guys are priced relatively well across almost all sites. Allen is a particularly good buy if priced well, as he's proved over his past 4-5 games that he's not only a great red-zone threat but has been able to rack up the targets and yardage extremely consistently. It's very surprising he's still being priced as a WR2-3 when he's clearly in the WR1-2 range.
Cecil Shorts is a slightly different story. After teammate Justin Blackmon was suspended last week for repeated violation of the NFLs substance abuse policy (marijuana) Shorts will step right back into the #1 role at Jacksonville. Fortunately for him, he now has Chad Henne hucking the ball rather than the indomitable Blaine Gabbert. While both Jacksonville and Henne are still terrible, Henne is a massive step up from Gabbert. Since JAX will still be playing from behind every game, Shorts should see an uptick in targets and some (hopefully) impressive garbage time points. Another much deeper sleeper to keep an eye on in Jacksonville is Mike Brown, the team's third receiver who will be playing in the spot of Blackmon.

Mike James is final value pick who is under-priced at almost every site. With news this week that Doug Martin has been placed on the season-ending IR in Tampa, James is now the teams one and only back, and will be the focal point of their run game for the rest of the season. With another week to train as the primary back, James should be good for some solid points in favorable matchups. This week vs. the Dolphins is definitely one of those favorable matchups. Pick him up.
The last guy I want to talk about is Jimmy Graham. With Gronk on bye and Gonzalez in a difficult matchup vs the Seahawks Graham is by far the best TE pickup this week. However, he's still priced very high in most leagues, so picking him up will necessitate some bargains and value-picks in other positions. However, despite his steep price tag, he's still worth a pickup in most sites due to his ridiculous ability. Graham is one of those guys you can count on for 1-2 touchdowns every game. It's not fair. If you can afford him, pick him up.

Anyway, without further ado, the full week 10 value rankings and lineup optimizations:

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