Saturday, December 14, 2013

Week 15 Rankings and Projections

Brief overview of the rankings can be found here, and an oultine of the linear optimization algorithm can be found here.

As the season progresses it looks as though the $/pt value for players is starting to settle down - there are fewer outlandish outliers to take advantage of at this point in the season. However, you can still find some value if you look hard enough. Chris Ogbonnaya is a must-buy if you're playing on DraftKings this week simply because he's priced incredibly low with his easiest matchup of the year with a home game versus a porous Bears run defense. When you consider that "lead" Browns runningback Willis McGahee out with a concussion, Ogbonnaya will be playing a lot of downs. Don't expect him to carry your team to victory this week, but as a bargain bin pickup he'll allow you to upgrade elsewhere in your lineup. In this case, it looks like Shane Vereen and Dez Bryant offer the best value of the elite talents at RB and WR.

Elsewhere it looks like Brandon Marshall is great value at DraftStreet, but this is a potentially risky pick. It seems like part of his value is due to the fact that it's unclear which of Marshall and Jeffery Browns CB Joe Haden will shadow tomorrow afternoon. In fact, if Marshall is stuck on Haden Island, look to replace him with Alshon Jeffery, as #2 WRs have fared incredibly well vs the Browns all year long, and Jeffery is one of the most capable #2s in the entire league.

Pierre Garcon and Roddy are also fairly well priced across the board, but with a new QB in Washington it may be a slightly risky pick with potentially high reward. Both Washington and Atlanta have pretty terrible defenses, so both players could be in for big days.


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