EU LCS W7D1 - Projections and Thoughts

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I'm still in the process of deciding exactly how I'd like to structure this post and with what cadence I'll put these out, but for now I'm going to attempt to do every day there's EU or NA LCS action... In the future I might run through both days of EU and NA in one post each, but let's see how long I can keep this up with more individualized daily thought.

Team Projections and Odds

Let's take a look at what my model thinks of this weeks matchups. I'll provide a write-up on roughly how my model works, but for now that's my secret :) [it's not that complicated, you weight historic performance of players with their likelihood of winning using some voodoo math]:

W7D1 team aggregate stats and projections. Value is simply points per $. Coloration is provided for readability... Blue/Green is good, Red bad.

Unsurprisingly, the heaviest favorite of the night, UOL, is the best projected team for overall points. To those who have watched them play, especially in past LCS splits, this makes total sense. UOL historically has played in drawn-out, high kill matches. Last season they ranked 4th in EU in kills-per-game while also managing to rack up the 3rd most deaths-per-game. That's an impressive feat, and evidence of the blood-bath nature of their games.

There will be blood... of Unicorns and Wolves.

However... this current season is somewhat of a different story. This season they have the 4th fewest deaths and 4th fewest kills per game in EU. Their opponents, the Wolves, have also been somewhat tame, putting up only the 6th most deaths and fewest kills in EU. However, my model does take into account historic performance of players, and some of last seasons blood and gore is built out here. Additionally, because they are such heavy favorites to win (and knowing CW doesn't really ever kill anyone) they are still a very safe bet to put up decent points, but there's a chance my model is overselling their total point production if we believe they are 100% over their glorious spring-split blood baths.

As expected, I think Origen and Fnatic are also good bets, with my model strongly preferring rostering Fnatic due to their lower prices. While I really like ROC players when they win, they are currently not favored enough for me to roster many of them in cash games, but perhaps would make a solid tournament play.

Favorite Players by Position

Top: Unsurprisingly top laners in EU haven't particularly separated from each other in terms of carry ability, so I generally prefer them in the order of their likelihood of winning. There's honestly not much difference between Huni and Vizicsacsi statistically, so it's really a preference in terms of how you view each game will play out... I personally think csacsi has a wonderful matchup against Lenny (who has not been playing great), but that assumes they actually lane against eachother.

Jungle: Kikis, Reignover, Amazing and Jankos are all very close for me, separated only really by their salary and expectations of game flow. I really don't know if H2K will let Fnatic walk all over them, so there's a chance that game is more controlled and objective focused. On the other hand, Giants have given up the 2nd most deaths per game this split, while Origen have come out guns blazing putting up the 3rd most kills-per-game (and a propensity for late-game fountain-dives and BM'ing) making this match potentially bloody, which is always good for DFS.

Mid: Again here FNC and UOL come out on top, but based on game-flow it might be risky to pick Febiven despite his cheap price tag. However, my model likes him a lot, he's been playing pretty well and it would be silly to have no exposure to Fnatic. I may take a gamble on him to free up some cap space for more expensive ADCs, but Peke and PowerofEvil are solid alternatives.

ADC: If you're going to pay up for a position, do it at ADC in EU. At least according to my model. I rate Niels, Vardags and Rekkles very highly. Even CandyPanda shows up high on my list and at terrific value. There's always a chance Niels shows up higher than he should in my model due to his reduced sample size of just half a split, but never-the-less he's also a great choice as long as he keeps putting up big numbers in favorable matchups.

Support: Pick your poison here. I personally don't see much difference statistically between Mithy, Hylissang and YellOwstar... They're all decently priced with similar projections. For me it depends on 2 things: what type of game are you playing and who have you already picked. I'll generally use the support position to hedge on teams that I'm over-invested in with a cash lineup, while tournament lineups I'd just grab whoever is supporting my ADC of choice. For example, if I've only got 1-2 UOL players and 2+ FNC or OG players, I might grab Hylissang to give me a bit more exposure to the UOL game and make sure I'm not too invested in either FNC or OG.

Alright, that's it for me, happy drafting! If you are still trying to figure out what I mean when I say cash game or tournament lineups, check out this brief little write-up here. See you out there!